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PyMC3 docker container. Launches a Jupyter Notebook at 8888.
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PyMC3 is a Python package for Bayesian statistical modeling and Probabilistic Machine Learning
which focuses on advanced Markov chain Monte Carlo and variational fitting
algorithms. Its flexibility and extensibility make it applicable to a
large suite of problems.

Check out the :ref:getting started guide<notebooks/getting_started.ipynb>!

Features

  • Intuitive model specification syntax, for example, x ~ N(0,1)
    translates to x = Normal('x',0,1)
  • Powerful sampling algorithms, such as the No U-Turn Sampler <http://www.jmlr.org/papers/v15/hoffman14a.html>__, allow complex models
    with thousands of parameters with little specialized knowledge of
    fitting algorithms.
  • Variational inference: ADVI <http://www.jmlr.org/papers/v18/16-107.html>__
    for fast approximate posterior estimation as well as mini-batch ADVI
    for large data sets.
  • Relies on Theano <http://deeplearning.net/software/theano/>__ which provides:
    • Computation optimization and dynamic C compilation
    • Numpy broadcasting and advanced indexing
    • Linear algebra operators
    • Simple extensibility
  • Transparent support for missing value imputation

Getting started

If you already know about Bayesian statistics:

  • :ref:API quickstart guide<notebooks/api_quickstart.ipynb>
  • The :ref:PyMC3 tutorial<notebooks/getting_started.ipynb>
  • :ref:PyMC3 examples<examples> and the :ref:API reference<api>

Learn Bayesian statistics with a book together with PyMC3:

  • Probabilistic Programming and Bayesian Methods for Hackers <https://github.com/CamDavidsonPilon/Probabilistic-Programming-and-Bayesian-Methods-for-Hackers>__: Fantastic book with many applied code examples.
  • PyMC3 port of the book "Doing Bayesian Data Analysis" by John Kruschke <https://github.com/aloctavodia/Doing_bayesian_data_analysis> as well as the second edition <https://github.com/JWarmenhoven/DBDA-python>: Principled introduction to Bayesian data analysis.
  • PyMC3 port of the book "Statistical Rethinking A Bayesian Course with Examples in R and Stan" by Richard McElreath <https://github.com/aloctavodia/Statistical-Rethinking-with-Python-and-PyMC3>__
  • PyMC3 port of the book "Bayesian Cognitive Modeling" by Michael Lee and EJ Wagenmakers <https://github.com/junpenglao/Bayesian-Cognitive-Modeling-in-Pymc3>__: Focused on using Bayesian statistics in cognitive modeling.
  • Bayesian Analysis with Python by Osvaldo Martin <https://www.packtpub.com/big-data-and-business-intelligence/bayesian-analysis-python> (and errata <https://github.com/aloctavodia/BAP>): Great introductory book.

PyMC3 talks

There are also several talks on PyMC3 which are gathered in this YouTube playlist <https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PL1Ma_1DBbE82OVW8Fz_6Ts1oOeyOAiovy>__

Installation

The latest release of PyMC3 can be installed from PyPI using pip:

::

pip install pymc3

Note: Running pip install pymc will install PyMC 2.3, not PyMC3,
from PyPI.

Or via conda-forge:

::

conda install -c conda-forge pymc3

The current development branch of PyMC3 can be installed from GitHub, also using pip:

::

pip install git+https://github.com/pymc-devs/pymc3

To ensure the development branch of Theano is installed alongside PyMC3
(recommended), you can install PyMC3 using the requirements.txt
file. This requires cloning the repository to your computer:

::

git clone https://github.com/pymc-devs/pymc3
cd pymc3
pip install -r requirements.txt

However, if a recent version of Theano has already been installed on
your system, you can install PyMC3 directly from GitHub.

Another option is to clone the repository and install PyMC3 using
python setup.py install or python setup.py develop.

Dependencies

PyMC3 is tested on Python 2.7 and 3.6 and depends on Theano, NumPy,
SciPy, Pandas, and Matplotlib (see requirements.txt for version
information).

Optional

In addtion to the above dependencies, the GLM submodule relies on
Patsy <http://patsy.readthedocs.io/en/latest/>__.

scikits.sparse <https://github.com/njsmith/scikits-sparse>__
enables sparse scaling matrices which are useful for large problems.

Citing PyMC3

Salvatier J, Wiecki TV, Fonnesbeck C. (2016) Probabilistic programming
in Python using PyMC3. PeerJ Computer Science 2:e55
https://doi.org/10.7717/peerj-cs.55

Contact

We are using discourse.pymc.io <https://discourse.pymc.io/> as our main communication channel. You can also follow us on Twitter @pymc_devs <https://twitter.com/pymc_devs> for updates and other announcements.

To ask a question regarding modeling or usage of PyMC3 we encourage posting to our Discourse forum under the “Questions” Category <https://discourse.pymc.io/c/questions>. You can also suggest feature in the “Development” Category <https://discourse.pymc.io/c/development>.

To report an issue with PyMC3 please use the issue tracker <https://github.com/pymc-devs/pymc3/issues>__.

Finally, if you need to get in touch for non-technical information about the project, send us an e-mail <pymc.devs@gmail.com>__.

License

Apache License, Version 2.0 <https://github.com/pymc-devs/pymc3/blob/master/LICENSE>__

Software using PyMC3

  • sampled <https://github.com/ColCarroll/sampled>__: Decorator for PyMC3.
  • Bambi <https://github.com/bambinos/bambi>__: BAyesian Model-Building Interface (BAMBI) in Python.
  • gelato <https://github.com/ferrine/gelato>__: Bayesian Neural Networks with PyMC3 and Lasagne.
  • NiPyMC <https://github.com/PsychoinformaticsLab/nipymc>__: Bayesian mixed-effects modeling of fMRI data in Python.
  • beat <https://github.com/hvasbath/beat>__: Bayesian Earthquake Analysis Tool.

Please contact us if your software is not listed here.

Papers citing PyMC3

See Google Scholar <https://scholar.google.de/scholar?oi=bibs&hl=en&authuser=1&cites=6936955228135731011>__ for a continuously updated list.

Contributors

See the GitHub contributor page <https://github.com/pymc-devs/pymc3/graphs/contributors>__

Support

PyMC3 is a non-profit project under NumFOCUS umbrella. If you want to support PyMC3 financially, you can donate here <https://www.flipcause.com/widget/widget_home/MTE4OTc=>__.

Sponsors

|NumFOCUS|

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